It amazes me how much information there is available about the state of US health care and healthcare reform. These topics have been researched from every angle in the last seventeen years since the Clinton administration forced us to look at the sorry state of health care in the US. As we all know, we were too misinformed and frightened at that time to do anything to fix the beast so we studied it instead.
Now here we are mid-year 2009 and there is no reason any longer to be misinformed. The information is out there and it’s accessible. A few places to start are:
• The Commonwealth Fund
• The Kaiser family Foundation
• Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
These organizations don’t just have opinions. They have facts backed up by scientific research.
Here’s my summary of a recent report, Health Reform: The Cost of Failure, sponsored by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
This report gives us a glimpse of what will happen ten years down the road if health care is not reformed. It’s not making a case for how it should be reformed, but predicting what will happen if we give into our fears and kick reform down the road to the next generation to tackle.
A little Background
Researchers from the Urban Institute prepared an analysis using the Institute's Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model, estimating how coverage and cost trends would change between now and 2019. The study examined three alternative scenarios:
1. Worst case scenario — Between now and 2019, there will be:
Slow growth in incomes
High growth rates for health care costs
2. Intermediate case scenario — Between now and 2019, there will be:
Somewhat faster growth in incomes
Lower growth rate for health care costs
3. Best case scenario — Between now and 2019, there will be:
Faster income growth
Slower growth in health care costs.
The Results
Using national surveys and other economic data, the Urban model examined these three scenarios each assume varying levels of income growth and increases in health care costs. The report shows that within ten years if health care reform is not enacted:
1. Individuals and families could see health care costs dramatically increase.
Worst case scenario - Total premiums and out-of-pocket expenses could increase 68%
Best case scenario - Total premiums and out-of-pocket expenses could increase 46%
2. Businesses could see their health care costs double within 10 years.
Worst case scenario – employer spending on health insurance premiums would more than double
from $429.8 billion in 2009 to $885.1 billion in 2019
Best case scenario — employer spending on health insurance premiums would increase 72 percent
3. Spending on government insurance programs could double.
Worst case scenario – spending on Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program could
increase from $251.2 billion this year to $519.7 billion in 2019, an increase of 107%.
4. Millions more people would be uninsured.
Worst case scenario – without reform, 65.7 million people could be uninsured by 2019 as
compared to the present 46 million uninsured.
Intermediate case scenario – 62.2 million uninsured
Best case scenario — 53.1 million uninsured
5. The amount of uncompensated care in the health system would increase.
Worst case scenario – totals for uncompensated care could more than double, from $62.1 billion
in 2009 to $141.4 billion in 2019
* Best case scenario — uncompensated care could increase $106.6 billion
So as you can see by the results of this research without reforms it looks pretty bleak in the next ten years. All sectors of health care (individuals, families, business, government, and health care providers)will be much worse off than they are now. The only sector that won’t be adversely affected is the insurance companies.
We can and should argue about the best way to reform health care, but one of the options can’t be to do nothing.